The news broken in early December by the visiting Head of delegation of the European Union to Zimbabwe, Xavier Marchal, that his bloc is prepared to work with the inclusive government with Mugabe as its president, and confirmed by the United Kingdom through David Miliband on Tuesday this week, who said that targeted sanctions will only be lifted on  the advice of Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change, has the potential of energizing or derailing the political processes in Zimbabwe. This is so if one considers that Tsvangirai is under immense pressure from SADC who want him to drop some of his key demands for progress’ sake as pointed out by President Jacob Zuma of South Africa.

Miliband’s admission in parliament on Tuesday that targeted sanctions on Mugabe and his cohorts could only be lifted on the advice of MDC has laid bare what ZANU PF has been suspecting that Tsvangirai’s party canvassed for sanctions.British Foreign Secretary said;“In respect of sanctions, we have made it clear that they can be lifted only in a calibrated way, as progress is made. I do not think that it is right to say that the choice is between lifting all sanctions and lifting none at all.”Miliband continued saying;“We have to calibrate our response to the progress on the ground, and, above all, to be guided by what the MDC says to us about the conditions under which it is working and leading the country,”This has the potential of strengthening MDC’s negotiating power with its political rival,ZANU PF.What Mugabe and ZANU PF need to do is to implement fully the outstanding issues as per Global Political Agreement knowing very well that sanctions will be a thing of the past.

The philosophy of using both a stick and a carrot does not often work in  complicated political situations like Zimbabwe and soon Miliband could  regret his public statements.

ZANU PF and Robert Mugabe are renowned for being political tacticians and would not take the bait which will consign them to political oblivion in the forthcoming general elections.Infact ZANU PF’s response was swift as expected through Simon Khaya Moyo, its new party chairman, who commented: “Britain has let the cat out of the bag on the issue of sanctions. They have admitted that the MDC called for the sanctions and it can only remove them on the request of the MDC.” Cde Moyo continued: “Thus Tsvangirai should go and ask for the removal of those sanctions. The declared and undeclared sanctions are affecting the country because we are not getting lines of credit and companies are being forced to close”. It is quite obvious that Milband’s statement has already backfired providing Mugabe with a genuine excuse to undermine Tsvangirai and his MDC party.Professor Eliphas Mukonoweshoro,the MDC’s foreign affairs spokesman tried vainly to limit the damage caused when he said:”We (the MDC) don’t formulate foreign policy on any country’s behalf…We are saying that they should judge us by the progress that we have made so far in the commitments we have undertaken (in the GPA).We can’t instruct them on what to do as regards their foreign policy on Zimbabwe.” Thus Miliband’s statement has put the MDC in the dock and ZANU PF will exploit it to the full. It is no secret that in a free and fair election, Mugabe and ZANU PF will not stand a chance against Tsvangirai and MDC hence Tomana, Gono and Jonatham Moyo are crucial to ZANU PF’s political fortunes aided by Britain’s tactless political utterances . Tsvangirai has a battle on his hands.

If David Miliband presented a case for Tsvangirai, then President Jacob Zuma did Mugabe a world of good by admonishing Tsvangirai in public when he said;“(are these issues (Gono and Tomana) so fundamental that we cannot move without resolving them? Can we park them and proceed?” Zuma carried on saying, “I’m sure the Zimbabweans have to open up and look at the issues from all angles”. Such words coming from South African President will surely be well received by President Robert Mugabe as “wise and constructive” words from a concerned African brother and as long as SADC is behind Mugabe, Tsvangirai will be chasing shadows. Mugabe can use his usual jibe labelling the MDC leader as a creation of the west, Britain mainly.

The fact that Mugabe  secured another 5-year term at the helm of ZANU PF has been rewarded by EU’s recognition as president of Zimbabwe  and that UK on advice from MDC will respond accordingly  means that sooner or later targeted sanctions will be lifted and baba naamai Chatunga (Mr and Mrs Mugabe) will commence  shopping errands to western cities is a very likely scenario. Mugabe with the support of SADC and AU has the means and capacity to out maneuver Tsvangirai in the forthcoming elections set for sometime next year. However, I have strong reservations on arms embargo and the frozen ill-gotten assets because of the following observations; firstly Southern Africa is a peaceful region without any prospects of conflicts  apart from perennial political turmoil in  Zimbabwe, particularly towards and during elections.With elections looming next year, a repeat of last year’s violence should not be ruled out. This then means that there is no compelling need for arms embargo to be lifted. Arms embargo should be kept in force to give democracy chance to take root, allowing a new crop of service men and women with a national orientation to assume higher office as opposed to the current crop.

The issue of frozen assets is even more thorny and controversial than the arms embargo because it touches on good governance and the emergence of a free democratic functional state. The issue here is the manner in which these assets were accrued and whether we should reward corrupt regimes which misappropriate national fortunes and then stash them in Western countries. The figure which we are talking about should be running into millions if not trillions of hard currency.Imagine Ignitious Chombo is quoted as  owning 11 farms and more than 100 residential stands,with the majority of these being in the posh suburbs of Borrowdale, not to mention other assets, if affidavits filed by his former wife is anything to go by.The Mugabe family has also helped themselves with 50 000 acres of prime farming land in Zimbabwe under the government’s infamous land reform programme. This illustrates that we are dealing with very  hungry big fish whose  appetite for wealth cannot be matched. Instead, their ill-gotten frozen assets should be given  to the new government which emerges after  this inclusive government. This government should be a product of free elections held under the auspices of SADC, AU and UN, not the farce of elections under Mugabe’s ZANU PF.

ZANU and ZAPU should be credited for liberating Zimbabwe from colonial regime. However,the regime which they established headed by the veteran Mugabe is corrupt, self-serving and has no respect for rule of law, thereby abandoned all principles of the revolution betraying those gallant sons and daughters who gave their today for our  tomorrow.What is clear is, where two bulls fight,the grass suffers most; people of Zimbabwe be warned: fore-warned is fore-armed.The first warning shots marking the beginning of a long arduous round for a new Zimbabwe have been fired and the momentum is with Robert Mugabe because the region is behind him. How will Tsvangirai and MDC respond only time will tell. A word of caution from Holy Book for guidance.

Luke 21:21 and 23″Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those in the country not enter the city.How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers! There will be great distress in the land and wrath against this people.”

GOD HAVE MERCY ON THE SUFFERING PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE.