JOHANNESBURG – What are the recovery prospects of Zimbabwe? Is SA on its way to becoming another Zimbabwe?

The answers to these questions should be a little clearer after an Economist Intelligence Unit conference on Zimbabwean prospects at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Oxford Rd next Thursday, September 16.

The three main questions to be addressed by EIU experts and invited speakers will be: Is the damage permanent? What sectors might recover first and how long will a more comprehensive recovery take?

Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai will be the keynote speaker. He will give his vision of the long-term outlook and impending policy changes.

Interviewed by Moneyweb Wednesday, Pratibha Thaker, regional director, Africa, of the EIU is not exactly sanguine on Zimbabwe’s recovery.

“Each time we think about recovery, Mugabe proves us wrong. We are staging the conference not so much because we see hope for a recovery but because of demand from SA corporates.

In 1980 Zimbabwe was a normal place with excellent infrastructure and a well managed, diverse economy. Today it is a human catastrophe. After decades of mismanagement there are few grounds for optimism. But investors look at the long term and our conference will provide open and frank dialogue on the subject.

“Even Mugabe recognizes Zimbabwe cannot function as it is. The money has run out.”

She points out” “Some 60-70% of the productive adults – 30% of the total population – have left the country since independence. Many of the skilled and the educated have settled comfortably elsewhere and it is doubtful they will want to return. One of the tragedies of Zimbabwe is the loss of its middle class.”

The conference will examine whether SA benefited from the implosion of Zimbabwe? And, has SA learned from the negative lessons of Zimbabwe? This week’s Economist records two bad moves by Zuma – buying off Cosatu and “cracking down on dissent”.

Thursday’s conference will also look at the ethics of investment. On one hand the poor people need it. On the other, it could prop up a questionable regime.

China’s increasing influence in Africa and in Zimbabwe will also come under the spotlight.

“You could see the Chinese as like minded people to the Zimbabweans. I recently chaired a conference on Ghana, where the Chinese are building a large hydro dam. It is described as a win-win contract by the government

“There are no conditions and the dam is being built. Never mind bad working relationships and a complete lack of skills transfer. I see the Chinese government as a kind of pimp. The government arranges the project and Chinese corporates get the contracts.”

Thaker says a million Chinese working class people already live in Africa. She foresees China and South Africa as being Zimbabwe’s most important allies in the future.

Thaker thinks mining will be first to recover. Zimbabwe was once a bread basket but agriculture is so neglected and lacking in capital and infrastructure that there will be no quick fix there, in spite of better world food prices, good soils and weather.

“I doubt farmers who were forced to leave will return as investors. The best we can hope is that some might return as managers.”

South African corporates never left Zimbabwe and therefore retain many interests. That might explain their interest in this conference.

Thaker thinks President Zuma has a huge opportunity to win credibility globally by engineering a recovery in Zimbabwe.

“I don’t know if he is up to it.”

She warns that some people, even in the MDC, believe that Tsvangirai has lost touch since being co-opted into Mugabe’s coalition government.

“He arrived with credibility for engineering change but has been bullied and beaten into coalition.”

Representatives of Anglo Platinum (JSE:AMS), Old Mutual (JSE:OML) SA and other executives will attend, as will two Zimbabwean ministers and the Ambassador-Delegate of the EU mission to Zimbabwe. The Economist’s Xan Smiley, Africa Editor of the Economist, will chair the conference.

Write to David Carte: davidcarte@moneyweb.co.za